[SDI-AsiaPacific] African, Asian crops 'to be hit hard by climate change'

[Kate Lance]

http://www.scidev.net/news/index.cfm?fuseaction=printarticle&itemid=4213&language=1
African, Asian crops 'to be hit hard by climate change'
Crops in South Asia and Southern Africa are likely to be worst hit by climate change and need greater investment in agriculture development and adaptation strategies, say US scientists.
The conclusions, reported (1 February) in Science, are based on an analysis of climate risks for crops in 12 food-insecure regions. 
The research team, led by David Lobell from the US-based Woods Institute for Environment at Stanford University, used statistical crop models and 20 climate change models for the year 2030.
The regions studied contain groups of countries with broadly similar diets and crop production systems, and a significant number of the world's malnourished people. The researchers calculated the 'hunger importance' of individual crops by multiplying the number of malnourished individuals by a crop's percentage contribution to calorie intake.
The more important crops — that more malnourished people depend on — in South Asia were found to be millets, groundnut, rapeseed and wheat. In the Sahel region of Africa it was sorghum, and maize in southern Africa.
The researchers say there are uncertainties in the crop and climate models, and several regions with poor climate and yield data, such as Central Africa, require further research to develop adaptation strategies. 
But, they say, the analysis shows a clear impact of climate change on crops, and the data is particularly robust for South Asia and Southern Africa. 
 
Link to full paper, Science 319, 607 (2008)
http://www.sciencemag.org/cgi/content/full/319/5863/607?ijkey=04CySFc/NojU.&keytype=ref&siteid=sci


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